Super Tuesday: The winners and losers in Democratic race

A four-way contest soon became a two-horse race as the results from 14 US states rolled in. But who were the biggest winners and losers in the Democratic race to challenge Donald Trump?

WINNERS

Joe Biden

Three thumbs up
What happened?
Joe Biden came into Super Tuesday hoping his momentum from a surprisingly big South Carolina win would translate into success in some of the states and allow him to keep within sight of Bernie Sanders in the delegate count. By that metric, his evening succeeded beyond his best expectations.
Joe BidenImage copyrightEUROPEAN PHOTOPRESS AGENCY
Key takeaways
1) Biden's support among black voters, which was on display in South Carolina, was replicated across the South, in states like North Carolina, Virginia and Alabama, where he consistently won around 60%. It also helped offset Bernie Sanders' strength with Hispanic voters in Texas.
2) Joe-mentum was real. According to exit polls, voters who decided who to support in the last few days before Super Tuesday broke overwhelmingly toward Biden. While that didn't help him in California, where almost half the electorate voted early, it proved decisive elsewhere. Biden was even winning states like Arkansas and Tennessee, which he didn't even campaign in. That was the power of his momentum.
3) The endorsements mattered. On Monday, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar dropped out of the presidential race and threw her support behind Biden. In her home state, a race that had appeared to be a toss-up between her and Sanders ended up being a near double-digit Biden win. Biden held an endorsement-palooza in Dallas on Monday, with support from Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg and Beto O'Rourke. He greatly overperformed his polls there, as well.
What next?
Tuesday night was a celebration for Biden but now the hard work begins. He is in for a state-by-state slog against Sanders that could stretch all the way to the Democratic National Convention in July. He'll have to fundraise furiously and organise rapidly to make up for the Vermont senator's campaign advantages. Meanwhile, Republicans are going to start training their fire on him - again.

Bernie Sanders

One thumb up
What happened?
The Vermont senator was hoping Super Tuesday would be his knockout punch. Instead, it looks as if he's in for a full 15-round heavyweight fight with Joe Biden. While he is on course to win the biggest prize of the evening, California, it was counterbalanced by losses in at least eight of the remaining 13 states.
Bernie SandersImage copyrightREUTERS
Key takeaways
1) Sanders' Latino support is still strong. One of the big differences between Sanders in 2016 and Sanders today is that his coalition is no longer just liberal white voters. His appeal to Latino voters, particularly the young, was first on display in Nevada - and he demonstrated it across the Super Tuesday states where, according to exit polls, he won 35% of their vote.
2) Speaking of young voters, Sanders straight-up dominated the under-29 vote once again, winning 65% to Biden's 17%. The challenge for the Sanders camp, however, is that there is little indication that they're turning out in higher numbers than usual. If there was a surge in turnout in Super Tuesday states, it was from moderate suburban voters - the kind that are more inclined to support Biden.
3) Vermont may be home, but it wasn't quite as sweet. Bernie lost some states, like Minnesota and Massachusetts, that he thought he had a good shot at winning and struggled in others, like Texas and Maine. Perhaps most surprising, however, is the Vermont senator only took 50% in Vermont. Given that Sanders took his home state and all its delegates in 2016 with 85.7%, that is a remarkable result.
What next?
A key tell from Super Tuesday was that Sanders gave his "victory" speech and his supporters packed up and went home before the polls in California, his strongest state, even closed. The evening did not go the way the Vermont senator and his loyal fans would have liked.
While Biden may be riding high for the moment, however, Sanders continues to pull in political donations unlike anyone else in the field - $46.5m in February alone - and has a battle-tested campaign team that went through a similar state-by-state primary grind against Clinton in 2016.
Outside of California Tuesday was a rough night for Sanders, but the race for the Democratic nomination is far from over.

Post a Comment

0 Comments